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SteveM's Swell Forecast for GuidoPalooza 2008
SteveM provides annual wave and swell forecasts for the GuidoPalooza.  Usually,
GPers are squirming restlessly awaiting the year's forecast...

Dr. Gray's Tropical Meteorology Project makes annual prognostications. This year's
annual hurricane prognostication has beat the mighty SteveM to the punch.
GP '08 Wave Forecast by Steve "The Mind"

"On average, head-high and awesomely clean.  Will rank up there with the top five, if not the top, Guidopalooza."

Steve "The Mind" Marshall
July 23, 2008
Hurricane Forecast 2008 - Atlantic Warm Pool Growing
by FishOutofWater (aka alt.surfing's George of the Jungle)
Mon Jun 23, 2008


It looks like a very active year. Unlike active 2005, the action should be in our swell window this year. Read the whole story here.
Forecasters predict busy hurricane season ahead

Forecaster's revamped report predicts 15 storms, 4 major

By KEVIN DEUTSCH
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 22, 2008

This year's hurricane season is likely to be busier than average, with a 60 percent to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms developing in the Atlantic, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes, the federal government said Thursday.

If the federal forecast sounds murkier than usual, there's a new wrinkle in the 2008 outlook: For the first time, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration added "probabilities" to its prediction.

Officials added the feature after years of criticism of their long-range forecasts, which have been fairly accurate but in some cases have been way off.

The probabilities "better convey that there is uncertainty in these outlooks," said Gerry Bell, lead Atlantic hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "It was being interpreted that there was 100 percent probability in these ranges."

The nation's annual forecast is now more like the daily weather report, with experts using the same sort of caveat that television meteorologists use in their reports, in case tomorrow features rain clouds instead of sunshine.

Some years, government forecasters badly miss the mark. In 2005, they expected 12 to 15 named storms, but there were 28, the busiest season on record.

The science behind this year's outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns, as compared to previous seasons with similar conditions, researchers said.

The main factors influencing the outlook are conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995 - such as warmer-than-normal temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic - and the anticipated lingering effects of La Niña, Bell said Thursday at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa.

Forecasters and emergency responders fear that coastal residents will be apathetic this year after the United States escaped the past two storm seasons virtually unscathed.

NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher said that even if the federal forecast is off, "it only takes one to make it a bad season."

"Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now - before a storm threatens," Lautenbacher said.

The Atlantic season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

NOAA's outlook will be updated Aug. 7, just before what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.

Last year, there were 15 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which were major. The government had predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.

Only one hurricane - Humberto - reached land in the U.S. It came ashore in Texas as a Category 1 storm and caused an estimated $50million in damage.

Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator R. David Paulison, who took over after the devastating 2005 season that ravaged New Orleans, said his agency is better prepared to handle disasters.

Reminding residents that bags of ice would no longer be distributed after storms, Paulison said people need to use the forecast and take some "personal responsibility."

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

 

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Last updated on 07/23/08